The first molecular assembler

Eric Drexler, in the mid 1980's wrote an important book, called 'Engines of Creation', outlining Atomic Engineering.
He discusses this in an updated talk in this YouTube video:

The revolution began some time ago - but things are about to speed up tremendously - sooner than anticipated, as we now have the first molecular assembler.

This tool will in turn enable the construction of even better assemblers,and so on and so on. An exponential curve of technological improvement will soon lead to places we cannot even clearly imagine.

Unlike traditional engineering, Atomic Engineering development and testing can be carried out almost in toto as computer simulations. Development of new systems is cheap, and the time from concept to production is many times shorter than with macro-scale engineering. In other words, progress will be extremely rapid - as many products have already been designed in silico, and are awaiting a suitable assembly mechanism.

PARADIGM SHIFT

The first molecular assembler was created toward the end of 2012. This was widely reported, but few of the articles went into much detail about the implications.

 Drexlerian Engineering (Feynmanian Engineering, Minskyite Engineering?),and the products that will result from it, and the societal changes that it will lead to,  are hard to wrap one's head around - the only limitations on development are the very laws of physics themselves, and human creativity.

Programmable Molecular Assembly was, until January of this 2013, what Drexler called a 'missing technology'. It is missing no longer.


Here is the famous lecture by Feynman that started the ball rolling. (Actually a re-delivery of the original 1959 talk, given in 1984)

Space Elevators here we come

Carbon nanotube threads can now be continuously spun at reasonable speed:

This will change power distribution (assuming this material is cheaper per unit power transmitted than copper), computing, flexible computing, solar cells, and wearable electronics, intercontinental cable based data transmission...and possibly even a space elevator. If it is durable, then hard-wearing ultra-long-life clothing will be possible. 

The future of work

As we are rapidly entering an age where productivity will outstrip employment, as capital (i.e. investment in artificial intelligence systems and robots) will directly be productive, politics will need to make major adjustments.

Work as a 'right' or as a 'value' in itself will need to be reassessed. It simply isn't the case that unemployment is caused by unwillingness to work - increasingly, the jobs simply are not there. This will become increasingly the case as artificial intelligence and robotics continue on their current trajectory - and we will be in this 'space' within the current generation of people alive. Indeed, some analysts detect this effect is already having an impact.

Some kind of stipend - preferably a universal stipend - will soon be necessary. Those who want to work, and improve their lot in life, will work one way or another - perhaps not even for remuneration, but simply for life satisfaction - but the stigma attached to non-work will have to pass away, in time, as those who are not working are recategorised. They cannot be demonised for this will mean demonising a substantial segment of the population, and, eventually, almost everyone.

All citizens will need to receive this basic allowance, regardless of their employment status. Those in employment would receive it, as would those not working. It would be universal, and universally applied, with a minimum of bureaucracy.

In other words, something akin to the current tax-free allowance, but paid to everyone, regardless of age or situation. The complex systems of assessing people for benefits, indeed, entire government departments and their attendant infrastructures, will be swept away, resulting in massive cost savings.

Government pension schemes would also need to be eliminated, and those currently receiving these pensions, moved off them, and onto the basic universal allowance. No future pension shcemes would be put in place.

 The cost of such a system would not be excessive - probably not more than the current welfare system, possibly even less. Those earning over a certain amount might need to pay slightly more taxes, and companies might need to pay more too.

 The societal benefit would be tremendous - releasing people who want to be creative, allowing artists, writers and poets to flourish. Those with more drive, will go and and work to improve their lot, over and above this basic allowance. The end result, perversely  might even be an increase in productivity.

Those who wish to shrink the State would be pleased, as massive swathes of the State apparatus would become redundant, and the government payroll would be cut tremendously. No staff at benefits offices, no job centres, no income assessors for means tested benefits.

Robotics is moving faster than even I imagined

A while back, I was talking to the pupils I teach about the future - especially about how knowledge based professions will be at risk from AI....we discussed the problem of analytic and knowledge based professions being at risk from AI, and we discussed the scenario where a few manual professions were all that remained, as physical robots that could do what humans can do would presumably take longer to develop.

I appear to have been totally wrong - within a decade, if not sooner, we will see robots that are effectively androids, in terms of their ability to mimic human movement and dexterity. The physical 'android hardware' will be in place long before we have developed computers that can copy human brain processing - but once we do, humanoid human-like androids will walk among us.

The first human anatomy based prototype was called ECCE, and the next generation of robot is already on the way - mimicking human physiology.

The first functional humanoid prototype is called Roboy and he will be up and running in a few months time. He will be small, and has a cute face, so as to be, presumably, non-threatening. I suppose even smaller models could be made, which could be high end toys for kids.

With the accelerating exponential growth in processing and computing power, it won't be long before we have a humanoid android that can fix the plumbing, harvest crops, and do other unpleasant manual work, like sweep the streets and clean lavatories, that so far has been able to avoid mechanisation. Such a robot may (once the software and computer hardware permits) even be able to take over most aspects of educational work, and the need for schools and classrooms and all that centralised educational infrastructure might simply vanish overnight.

I also suspect robots with this type of architecture - which we might as well call androids, as they are designed to be humanoid - will first find application in defence - for battlefield support, and, eventually, combat.

We may be heading to a world where most jobs in the traditional occupations of the post-industrial revolution world cease to exist, sooner than anyone can imagine. Remember those clunky first-generation robots in the movie AI? We have those already. We're now jumping right to the head of the queue, in terms of robot anatomy.

The world is rapidly heading for a paradigm shift, larger than the one we call the 'industrial revolution' and this is happening much faster than most people realise....and even those of us who are aware it is happening, are being overtaken by the rapidity of change.

For example, it appears that this year for the first time, android phones have enough processing power to run a full PC operating system, and Ubuntu ( Linux) has developed a 'desktop/laptop' operating system for installation on android devices. In a year or two, for most of us, there will be no functional, practical difference between a laptop and a phone. Apple and Microsoft will have to adapt their technologies - I suspect they have already designed the operating systems, in readiness for the hardware. If you don't stay ahead of the curve these days, you go under.