Sunday 11 December 2011

Solar Power - rapidly approaching the tipping point.

The cost of Solar Power has been plummeting - Solar development in many areas is outstripping Moore's Law and in cost per unit, there is now almost parity between solar power and fossil fuels.

We will soon - maybe only in a matter of months,be reaching a point where bulk purchased solar power infrastructure is cheaper per watt than any other current electricity generation method.

The Solar industry will not need grants and subsidies to compete, any more than the digital camera industry needed subsidies to compete against film cameras. The same holds true for electric vehicles, and advanced battery technology.


Friday 9 December 2011

Breaking Moore's Law - again and again

Today, another announcement in the application of AI to biochemistry was announced, resulting in a speeding up of two orders of magnitude the ability to classify proteins. The extreme rapidity of these advances is unprecedented.

Independence of the City of London

IF the government wants to protect the UK's financial services industry from the rules imposed by the EU, there is a simple, and elegant solution - grant to the City of London it's full Independence, as a City-State, and write treaties with it, so that the City's contribution to the exchequer can be guaranteed.

This is not such an implausible idea The City already has its own 100 member parliament - older than the one that sits at Westminster. It can pass legislation,and cannot be Ultra Vires within its jurisdiction; Acts of Common Council are binding within the City's jurisdiction. In many respects is it already quasi-independent.

The government would not need to do anything to create a democratic system artificially,or set up a parliament,or other structures of a State, as these already all exist. The City of London has its own bicameral parliament, its own judiciary, and its own military ( though the latter is now vestigial). All that would be required is an Act of Devolution, and a few treaties would need to be negotiated, so that the City can function effectively as a partner with Great Britain.   Cameron's and Osbourne's problems with EU regulation affecting the financial services industry in the UK would be solved at a stroke of a pen.

Tuesday 6 December 2011

Methylene Blue - something to keep an eye on???

Methylene Blue is a dye that was found to be bioactive, and has been in use in one way or another for over 100 years to treat a variety of ailments, but in most applications it has been replaced by more modern drugs.
Interesting Methylene Blue is the first synthetic chemical substance ever used therapeutically - in 1886. Because of its long history of use, we have a pretty clear idea about its toxicology. Humans have
taken 300 mg/day of methylene blue (corresponding to 4.3 mg/kg for a 70 kg person) for one year without significant side effects (Naylor et al., 1986).

It has recently been discovered that the effects of Methylene Blue are highly dose dependent. (Powerpoint synopsis of the research to date)
At very low doses the dye becomes an electron donor, assisting the mitochondria - the cell's power plants - to work while creating less oxidative damage.

Great attention is now being paid to the function of mitochondria in a wide range of disease states related to ageing, with mitochondrial neogenesis being a target of many drugs and regimes related to healthy life span, and implicated in life extension in lower animals.

The initial research  on MB - carried out in the late 1970's - showed an effect on memory. More recent research in the last 12 months has significantly broadened the field of activity, with a clear understanding that MBs activity is dose dependent.

MB may possibly be set to join the list of  chemicals such as resveratrol and curcumin (another dye) which have been shown to have effects that, while not necessarily promoting extended lifespan, appear to promote extended healthy lifespan,which is in many ways more important, from a subjective perspective. As of yet,few human trials have been carried out with MB, and little is known about its long term impact on the body at low chronic dosages.

There is an interesting overview on this chemical here, and an NIH synopsis of the latest science here

Methylene Blue is interesting, because it is extremely cheap. At the low doses where a positive effect is registered,there are few known side effects - the dosages used historically are an order or magnitude larger - sometimes 2 orders of magnitude -  a massive difference in dosage.

Note to self:

More on mitochondria here - see footnotes

Strategies to prevent Alzheimer's Disease - Atamna et alia.

Memory improvement with low dose MB (Doctoral Thesis)

Methylene Blue diffusion in skin tissue


Wednesday 30 November 2011

Pensions and Longevity

The current wave of strikes over pensions will come as no surprise to those in the corridors of power - and nor will the strikes achieve anything. The hard fact is, is that pensions as they now exist are unsustainable. The entire concept of a pension, is unsustainable.

The hard reality facing governments, is that life extension is just around the corner - and no government, on any side of the political spectrum, wants to get locked into pension payments that will essentially drain the public purse -  pensions are doing this already.
What we will see, incrementally, is the link between pension and salary will dissolve - and it will be replaced with a basic subsistence allowance. Nothing else will be affordable, if government is not to be hamstrung. Borrowing to pay pensions is not a sustainable policy. Private pensions, that rely on a lump sum to be invested in an annuity, will see their returns shrinking to such low levels , that they too become unviable. Most private pension funds are now insuring themselves against massive advances in longevity - which,when (it isn't if, it is when) this eventuates, will lead to the collapse of many private pension funds, which will not be in a position to keep paying out for decades longer than expected. Even a 5% increase in average longevity will cause a crisis. To judge by the percentages being achieved in lower animals, 5% is a very conservative figure - expecting a 20% increase, or more,  is probably not unreasonable.

Every week brings news of life extension achievements in various model organisms - only this week, an elegant genetic manipulation dramatically extended the lifespan of yeast, using a biochemical metabolic reaction chain known to exist in humans as well. Other studies indicate the drugs that promote mitochondrial fitness have a similar effect. And so the list goes on.

Policy makers are well aware that people currently receiving pensions could well survive longer in retirement as they did in employment. This is unsustainable. State pensions are paid out of tax receipts. The system was never designed for this. Ministers know it is unsustainable. Voters want to have their cake, and eat it. This cannot be, something has to give.  Most of the people striking today are unaware of the massive policy implications medical interventions are already having on life expectancy, and, as the saying goes, we ain't seen nothing yet.

The speed at which new compounds can be investigated, meaning the speed at which progress is being made, keeps increasing - more than exponentially. A major driver of change is the application of AI to chemistry. Novel compounds can then be investigated, also through automated, intelligent systems. Experiments that would have taken decades or months of painstaking labour, can now be streamlined and reduced to weeks, if not days, or, in some cases, seconds.

Society will need to adjust to these changes - those demonstrating today, in some ways, are not unlike the Luddites breaking the mechanical looms of industry - unable to come to terms with a paradigm shift, they rose up in futile rebellion.

Tuesday 15 November 2011

What kind of professions will most be at risk from software ?

Knowledge based and technocratic professions are most at risk from software. House painters, plumbers and such will eventually be in the firing line, but this will take longer, as hardware that can compete with the dexterity of a human body lags far behind software development, and AI development.


 As it is, a vast percentage of trading on the stock market floor is now carried out by computer agents. So are document searches in legal departments. Many of these applications, while removing people from employment, will simultaneously  will open up new opportunities, so that new types of job will spring up, as a result of the increased productivity.


Here is an example of the type of work that is currently being taken over by robots in labs the world over: Indeed, in many cases, reactions are carried out - modeled - inside the software itself - but for some very complex and poorly understood interactions, real life experimentation is still needed:




"one employee needs approximately two weeks to process 16 samples (of experimental glass recipes).
Researchers of the Fraunhofer Institute for Silicate Research ISC in Würzburg have developed a unit that carries out all these steps automatically. "It needs only 24 hours to process 16 samples," says Dr. Martin Kilo, manager of the expert group for glass and high-temperature materials at the ISC. "For this reason we are able to develop glass elements more cost-effectively than previously, by up to 50 percent." 

Another example is the massive surge in scholarship and productivity that is resulting from the application of AI to the fragmented documents of the Cairo Geniza, a huge repository of Jewish texts scattered across the globe, mostly in fragmentary form. On the one hand, researchers are being put out of a job, one that could have provided fodder for generations of academics. On the other hand,the raw material available to be analysed on a meta level has jumped exponentially - providing resources that will attract funding, and more employment of specialists. Similar progress has been made using software with the Herculaneum papyri, but here huge technical obstacles to reading the unrolled remaining scrolls have yet to be surmounted.

Monday 14 November 2011

Computers that can self-program and evolve

At present, computers can 'learn' to some degree, mainly by fine tuning algorithms, but they are not at present able to completely re-write their code, to the extent that they can alter their circuitry, and truly evolve into new architectures. To do that, a method would need to exist whereby software can recofigure the actual design of the chip itself as it learns.
As we head towards three dimensional architectures for chips, a new path has opened that appears to lead in this direction. The ramifications are massive. If a viable chip emerges that can be reconfigured autonomously by the software running it, then we can imagine the ability for computers to evolve and learn to be extended, by growing new architectures, and new software. 

When there are 100,000 channels

A friend of mine was joking about who would hold the remote, when there were 100,000 channels. I replied, no-one will be holding it, the remote will be interlinked to your brain.
A few posts back, I was talking about human-computer integration,and positing various possible scenarios. With alarming rapidity, one of these scenarios is now a reality - a viable interface that is not implanted, and has high resolution.
How long before we have equipment that allows us to access our smartphones,which are micro-computers, after all, not 'phones' at all....directly via our brains? How long before our brains can directly access wikipedia, for example? Or a dictionary? I think we are looking at quite a short time window.

Tuesday 16 August 2011

Androids and Cyborgs just got a step closer

One of the main limitations to developing androids, is the power supply problem. The immense computing power needed, using current technology, means battery power isn't really a viable option. Humanoid robots still need power cables, or can only run for a few minutes with current battery technology. The ever-growing complexity of their circuitry and memory requirements is not at present keeping pace with the required energy efficiency needed for autonomous functioning.

The same goes for implantable circuits - they will still need, using current technologies, an external power supply. An autonomous cyborg with integrated circuitry really should not be in a position where he or she needs to plug in.

Some recent research has opened a door to a new computing paradigm - one that if successful, could cut carbon emissions, and , more to the point, make androids and cyborgs more of a possibility. At present, it is still very much on the drawing board.

Here is the article:

 By combining two frontier technologies, spintronics and straintronics, a team of researchers from Virginia Commonwealth University has devised perhaps the world's most miserly integrated circuit. Their proposed design runs on so little energy that batteries are not even necessary; it could run merely by tapping the ambient energy from the environment. Rather than the traditional charge-based electronic switches that encode the basic 0s and 1s , spintronics harnesses the natural spin -- either up or down -- of electrons to store bits of data.


Spin one way and you get a 0; switch the spin the other way -- typically by applying a magnetic field or by a spin-polarized current pulse -- and you get a 1. During switching, spintronics uses considerably less energy than charge-based electronics. However, when ramped up to usable processing speeds, much of that energy savings is lost in the mechanism through which the energy from the outside world is transferred to the magnet.
The solution, as proposed in the AIP's journal Applied Physics Letters, is to use a special class of composite structure called multiferroics. These composite structures consist of a layer of piezoelectric material with intimate contact to a magnetostrictive nanomagnet (one that changes shape in response to strain). When a tiny voltage is applied across the structure, it generates strain in the piezoelectric layer, which is then transferred to the magnetostrictive layer. This strain rotates the direction of magnetism, achieving the flip. With the proper choice of materials, the energy dissipated can be as low as 0.4 attojoules, or about a billionth of a billionth of a joule. This proposed design would create an extremely low-power, yet high-density, non-volatile magnetic logic and memory system.


Thursday 11 August 2011

The Dark side of Empathy

Since London went into spasm this week, I have been thinking long and hard about what has been going on. The press is throwing out the usual answers - these kids are reacting to spending cuts, to a political platform. Others are just condemning a wave of criminality. Tens of thousands, bizzarely, have signed a petition, saying that rioters should lose all State benefits. Westminster council is threatening to evict rioters (Although they have no powers to do this, but it makes good copy).

Exquisitely timed, a piece of sociological - psychological research was published this week, that sheds a lot of light on the various phenomena that we are seeing.

The article I want to discuss was published this week in "Current Directions in Psychological Science", a journal of the Association for Psychological Science.
The article is entitled, "Social Class as Culture: The Convergence of Resources and Rank in the Social Realm."
Dacher Keltner of the University of California-Berkeley cowrote the article with Michael W. Kraus of UC-San Francisco and Paul K. Piff of UC-Berkeley.

The essence of the article is this - working class people are far more empathetic. Their lives are more emotion driven. Their very poverty throws them into each other's laps for mutual assistance. They are much better at reading emotions than people from higher socio-economic backgrounds. They suffer the down side of living on the emotional edge, with higher rates of mental disturbance, than those who are emotionally insulated. They respond to their environment primarily on an emotional level. In normal everyday life, they are more likely to act altruistically and to give freely from the little that they have. When things go wrong, on the other hand, the other side of this coin can manifest itself.

On the other hand, people from higher socio-economic levels are poor at reading emotions on other's faces. They hoard wealth and do not re-dstribute it. Their primary focus is on the self, and not on others. They are far less reliant on their peers to get through life.

Interestingly, as people rise in social class, they shift, and start to become less empathetic, and less caring of others.

Now, what has this to do with the riots in London, and the response to them?

Let us look at the responses, first: most social commentators are, of course, from the higher socio-economic echelons. They will look at these rioters, and think, "These are people who are just like me, but poorer." They respond accordingly, and the responses show an alarming lack of empathy.
Westminster Council has threatened to evict council tenants who have had their children involved in the riots. Their children!!! Even if the parents knew nothing about it. I read this, and felt deeply uncomfortable.
Tens of thousands of people have signed a Downing Street petition, asking that all people involved in rioting, be stripped of all their benefits. Here too, a lack of empathy and understanding.

Let us look at the rioters themselves. Many, when asked to explain what they were doing, responded in simple emotional terms, the most common expression being "It is fun". The rioters, young boys and youths, who are particularly emotionally unstable as a normal state of affairs, rioted. London used to have regular riots, in the Middle Ages. The apprentices of the City of London regularly went off on a wild rampage.


Essentially, this is what we are seeing. One half of society, the half that responds emotionally, the half that freely gives and that cares deeply for its own community structures, is reacting.

The question is, reacting to what? I believe the answer lies in emotional interaction between the classes. Something unpleasant has been building for a long time, a growing tension.

Since the current government was elected, (And I largely support their economic platform) there has been a burst of non-empathetic language from those in power. Those on the dole, or on sickness benefits and the unemployed have been emotionally attacked by the government, and by the media, repeatedly, day in and day out, for month after month. Feckless! Workshy! Parasites! There have been attacks on the entire concept of Social Housing. Those who receive it, are being made to feel like their Victorian predecessors were made to feel about the workhouse. The language is, quite frankly, Dickensian. And so , as we have seen, has been the response.

Within the communities, a feeling began to build up - until the point of explosion was reached.
These riots are not just about criminality. They are not about people being individualistic. Yes goods and chattels were stolen, but just as frequently, they were simply destroyed by the mob. These riots were not rational, if they were, the targets would have been different. The emotional outpouring that these riots represent was directed seemingly randomly. an animal in pain, was lashing out wildly. I believe the riots are the result of a fundamental disconnect between two very different sections of society.

These disconnects are expressed in a variety of ways, the most visible of which is through language - the previous Labour government, despite its faults, was always careful, always emotionally in tune to some extent with the lower socio-economic group. ( Whom one cannot even call the 'working classes', as so many are unemployed, and in the current jobs market, unemployable, because the jobs they once would have done, simply no longer exist). The current Tory-Liberal government is not. Liberalism, in its English manifestation, is a profoundly middle class movement. So is Toryism. They are both populated by people drawn from the higher socio-economic groups, people who think and talk in a totally different way to those who have been roaming the streets of England.

The Labour opposition has not been vocal in voicing the concerns of the poor - and if it has, it has had its voice has been drowned out. The Press is largely right wing, and the discourse there is also one of attack.

If this rioting were political, the commentators reason, then the targets should have been political. However, these riots, which I do believe are deeply political, in the true meaning of the word political, were driven by the heart, not by the head. They were an attack on the very fabric of society itself. There is a dark rationality to this.

The lower socio-economic classes have seen their jobs melt away to the Far East. What jobs remain for the less academically able, or the less well educated, or for those who speak a different dialect of English, with a different accent from the Middle - Upper Class RP norms, are almost all at the bottom of the ladder. The early morning buses coming in to the City of London are not full of City Workers in suits, but of cleaners and janitors and back office staff. The men in suits start to turn up, pouring out of the mainline stations at London Bridge and Liverpool Street a few hours later. The two populations of staff seldom even cross paths in the street, their mutual co-existence concealed, hidden away.

The end result: an explosion. The response is not likely to solve the problem, unless the underlying emotional wound that lead to the explosion in the first place, is addressed.

Youth Centres must stop closing. Programs that primarily assist the poor must not be cut back. Teenage pregnancy care provision needs to be provided. Day centres that protect the vulnerable need to be ring fenced. The Sure Start programme needs to be expanded, not reduced. The NHS needs to be seen to be protected. The wealthy - and those in government - probably all have private insurance. The poor do not. Above all, the tone of the public discourse vis a vis the poor and disenfranchised needs to change. If it does not, more riots are on the way, and next time, they will be far, far worse, more damaging to life and property, and much better planned than these small fits and spasms that we have been witness to, spasms that rioled across the surface of our body politic.







Friday 5 August 2011

The rise and rise of AI

The thing that is driving technological development forward, in ways that are going to be increasingly hard for us to imagine, is the rise of artificially intelligent systems.

There are already systems in some fields that are so good at their specialised tasks, that the researchers are playing catch up with the output of the systems.

This article published today, is of a type we will be seeing increasingly frequently, in an ever widening range of endeavour: For those  in analytical knowledge-based professions - such as lawyers, lab technicians, and data analysts, beware. Even most architects may soon be out of a job, with the brunt of the  work being produced by automated systems, with perhaps guidance from a creative mind.
 Musicians, poets and authors - for the moment, you might be able to relax.


ScienceDaily (Aug. 5, 2011) — Robot trading agents, which already dominate the foreign exchange markets, have now been definitively shown to beat human traders at the same game.



The new results were obtained after a re-run of the well-known



 IBM experiment (2001) where human traders competed against
 state-of-the-art computerised trading agents -- and lost.
Results presented at a conference July 22 showed beyond doubt that computerized trading agents, using the Adaptive Aggressiveness (AA) strategy developed at the University of Southampton in 2008, can beat both human traders and robot traders using any other strategy.
Ten years on, experiments carried out by Marco De Lucas and Professor Dave Cliff of the University of Bristol have shown that AA is now the leading strategy, able to beat both robot traders and humans.
The academics presented their findings at the International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI 2011), held in Barcelona.
Dr Krishnan Vytelingum, who designed the AA strategy along with Professor Dave Cliff and Professor Nick Jennings at the University of Southampton in 2008, commented: "Robot traders can analyse far larger datasets than human traders. They crunch the data faster and more efficiently and act on it faster. Robot trading is becoming more and more prominent in financial markets and currently dominates the foreign exchange market with 70 per cent of trade going through robot traders."

Thursday 4 August 2011

Lifespan and Public Policy

I have noticed an increase in drip-feeding the population with little "awareness" articles issues from Central Government, relating to the problems of increased lifespan. This short one, quoted below, is from the Guardian, and published today:

Lifespan leap raises care problems

By Nigel Morris, Deputy Political Editor
Thursday, 4 August 2011
Today's 20-year-olds are twice as likely as their parents to reach the age of 100, a new analysis of Britain's rapidly ageing population reveals today.
My note: This assumes current projections hold, however, the exponential growth in computing power, affecting the fields of chemistry and biochemistry, and ageing research, means that this estimate is likely to be very conservative. There are some people who think someone is alive now, who might well have an indefinite lifespan. The longer people live for, the more medicine has time to advance,and the more likely it is that interventions will be found for specific problems of ageing. So, the guesses below are incredibly conservative, my estimate is that these numbers will be far higher, and not only that, the survival rate past 100 will be greater.
A girl born this year has a one-in-three chance of becoming a centenarian, and a boy a one-in-four chance, the research by the Department for Work and Pensions discloses.
A girl born in 1931 had only a 5 per cent chance of reaching her century, with the figure dropping to jut 2.5 per cent for boys.
On current trends there will be half a million people aged 100 or over by the year 2066.
And here lies the rub. We cannot make policy based on current trends, not when information technology and Artificial Intelligence, used increasingly in basic computational molecular research, is advancing in sophistication with exponential rapidity.
Steve Webb, the Pensions minister, warned that the huge advances in average lifespans meant people would need to save more for a retirement that could stretch into an 11th decade.
Here, finally, we have someone who is aware of the problems, but seems to scared to voice them explicitly. The government knows that it will not be able to keep the current pension model in operation - the entire notion of retirement will have to be re-evaluated. the current problems we are seeing, with the government attempting to reduce pension liabilities, and talking about building a retirement age escalator, meaning retirement age will rise automatically as average lifespan increases, without the need for policy decisions, just as the fuel escalator functions with fuel duty.
He said: "The dramatic speed at which life expectancy is changing means that we need to radically rethink our perceptions about our later lives. We simply can't look to our grandparents' experience of retirement as a model for our own.
It is very rare to find overt discussion of this problem. About 5 years ago, the newspapers were focusing on pension provision, and the lack of it. However, should there suddenly be a paradigm shift in ageing research, many pension programs will simply go into default - a programme that is set up to pay pensions for 10 years on average, will  not cope if its members suddenly require 30 or 50 years of additional pension payments.

The question is, what models will be proposed? Not everyone can manage to save enough to invest in a second property, and rent it out and live off the proceeds - which is probably the most secure option currently available.

Friday 29 July 2011

remote brain wireless interface

Since writing that little piece yesterday, another step has been taken in a relatively new technology - non invasive brain-computer interfacing: here is the synopsis:

ScienceDaily (July 29, 2011) — "Brain cap" technology being developed at the University of Maryland allows users to turn their thoughts into motion. Associate Professor of Kinesiology José 'Pepe' L. Contreras-Vidal and his team have created a non-invasive, sensor-lined cap with neural interface software that soon could be used to control computers, robotic prosthetic limbs, motorized wheelchairs and even digital avatars.


"We are on track to develop, test and make available to the public- within the next few years -- a safe, reliable, noninvasive brain computer interface that can bring life-changing technology to millions of people whose ability to move has been diminished due to paralysis, stroke or other injury or illness," said Contreras-
Vidal of the university's School of Public Health.

WHAT IF WHEN?

Researchers, when discussing these technologies, almost always talk about their application to those who have diseases and  infirmities - which is well and good,but what really interests me, is the potential for these technologies to be used by healthy people to interface with their minds.
Once could imagine the electrodes implanted using soft biocompatible electronics outside the skull - the circuitry will eventually be reduced in size to such small sizes, that such implantation will effectively be non invasive. One assumes that two way communication will be viable. Implantation into the brain itself is problematic,there is virtually no spare room in the human brain. 
I could imagine mobile phone companies and gaming companies being  very interested in this technology.
I myself cannot wait for the time when I can interface with my microcomputer without having to physically touch it.
It would sit in my pocket, and I would interface with it wirelessly and use it directly with my brain......the question is,what would happen to the internet and the cloud,once humans begin to directly interface with it,and once it begins to directly interface with humans. Our brains, which are very malleable, will certainly undergo changes.


Thursday 28 July 2011

A foot in the past,a foot in the future.

I am constantly thinking; thinking about times past, when I read Renaissance texts, mainly in Latin, and sometimes Roman texts - although these interest me less ; thinking about the future,as I look over the scientific abstracts every day.
One piece of news caught my eye recently,and set me thinking - the invention of a water compatible flexible circuit,capable of information processing. The press release from begins like this; ScienceDaily (July 14, 2011) — Researchers from North Carolina State University have developed a memory device that is soft and functions well in wet environments -- opening the door to a new generation of biocompatible electronic devices.


What if when?


Now, only a small leap is required, to think, what would be needed to interface with the human brain?  At present, cumbersome glass electrodes are used, with wires having to traverse the blood-brain barrier. with  biocompatible implanted wifi connection, that would interface under the skin, behind the blood-brain barrier,the implant  would only need to be very small, as space is at a premium in the human brain - but it would not need to do much -  only link to a wifi relay booster  that would possibly have more power, located elsewhere in the body, where there is more room to play around with.
New energy harvesting technology would make the system self powering.


This in turn,would connect to the internet, giving the mind a direct connection to external data.